I am writing this little essay
mostly for myself and maybe for a few of my friends who want to read it. I do
not claim that I have any definitive answers nor that I am worth listening to. However,
just like most of the people I know (if not everyone), I am deeply upset by the
US election that delivered the control of the world’s most powerful nation and
the only one of the “big 3” (USA, Russia, China) that has in the past at least
tried to keep liberal values and human rights safe across the globe to a populist advised by the religious-right (aka the 'backwards thinking people'). We can
debate the methods and also the motivation, but that is not really what I am
getting to. I want to remind myself and everyone who is reading this of one
thing: the world has changed. We need to change. It is in our hands to make
sure the world does not finally retreat into another era of fascism and war
(yes, war). And it is late.
I am talking specifically of my “bubble”
of people – well-educated, liberal and international folks who have literally a
99% chance of having supported Clinton in the US election, supporting BRemain
in the Brexit vote and supporting social security to some degree, a
discrimination-free society (as far as possible) and some mixture of sensible
state regulation for business, while allowing it to thrive. We fucked this up.
What is happening in the
developed world is crystal clear to me. Automation is costing “less-skilled”
workers their jobs and livelihoods. A year ago there was no such thing as “Bloomberg
Automation”, now the first summary I read on ANY company’s earnings report is
written up by a robot. Three years ago, all of a sudden, I saw automatic
chashier machines pop up in super markets next to the people. Nowadays, these
machines outnumber people 4 to 1 at the places I shop. In my view it is not a
stretch to see how computers will become ever more intelligent, better at
learning and might yet master the art of creativity. No one’s job is “safe”
from this development. I am sure there are hundreds of different opinions on
this, but my personal opinion (and this is my essay after all) is that there
are not going to be enough jobs in the “service” sector for everyone to keep
having one. And I also believe robots will start making entries there as well.
Can a robot really not cut a person’s hair if a robot can perform complex
surgery? I doubt it. Will Uber Cars still be driven by actual people in 10
years? I find that almost a utopian thought.
As people lose their jobs and the
way to support their families, they fall out of the bubble I was speaking about
earlier. They are literally no longer a part of the society of those people
that I am fortunate enough to belong to. There is, across the Western world, by
now a part of the population that I would estimate around 25% that live in
their own world, just like we live in ours, that does not take part in the same
life any longer. These people do not meet us and they do not see any of our
liberal posts on social media. They do not realize (or care) that an
administration like Trump will actually be worse for them tax wise. And they
may not need to care – they do not pay taxes anymore… This entire part of the population
is now especially susceptible to one thing: populism. Whether that is the right
or the left does not matter much, but recently the explanation “Immigrants are
taking your jobs” seems to be the easiest to sell and so it is mostly the right
that benefits. This is not a US issue. This is happening everywhere. UK IP in
the UK, Trump in the US, Le Pen in France, the 5 star movement in Italy
(left), Podemos in Spain (left), Varoufakis et al in Greece, the “Alternative
for Germany” in Germany, Geert Wilders in Holland, Blocher in Switzerland,
Putin in Russia (slightly different elements there I admit). I could go on, it
is happening everywhere. And WE, the people in my bubble are the only ones who
can still stop this.
The first thing we should all
realize is that the described “threat” from automation is first and foremost a
good thing. It takes only very little imagination to see that in a few years
humanity will no longer need to do the jobs that no one wants to do. We will,
as a matter of fact, no longer “need” to work. We would be able, looking at the
sheer abundance of resources and wealth in totality, to allow for a life in
happiness for everyone (yes, around the globe) and allow everyone to simply
follow his or her interests. Of course we will all still work on something and
there will be a need to maintain the machines that serve us, but I doubt there
won’t be enough people willing to invest some of their time to do this.
Scientists will never stop inventing and researching, gamblers will never stop
looking at markets and trying to trick them, artists will paint and mechanics
will repair cars. For fun, to keep society working, for personal satisfaction,
but no longer to survive and put a meal on the table.
Now, I believe this is a likely
scenario. Sadly the thing that needs to happen for it to become true is
currently more likely to happen via wars and revolutions rather than thought
through transition from one society model to the next. And that is on us. The people
who still have jobs that pay well. The people who have a liberal mind and
understand that Donald Trump only benefits themselves (economically) but certainly
not the people who voted for him. Most importantly, the people who have the money
and who are hoarding the world’s wealth either by entitlement (i.e., I
inherited this so I deserve it) or through building empires (i.e., I was lucky
to receive a good education and a smart brain so I deserve it). We, these
people, need to realize that a peaceful transition between our current societal
model “work to survive and exist” to “work to enjoy and contribute” is only
possible if we give. We need to give our wealth and share our power if we have
any. We need to involve the people who lose their jobs in automation and enable
them to have a great life as they merely happen to be the first ones who will
be “freed” of labour. We need to make sure that there is a change in society
away from “if you do not work you are lazy and you should not have too much
money”. It is our responsibility alone.
Otherwise this doubtlessly growing number of people, will resort to violence at
some point. I do not know how we can effect this, but I have a feeling it
starts with an inheritance tax that scales up to 100% (yes 100%) after a
certain base rate (which can be high, could even be 5m USD per person; does anyone
really need to inherit more than that?) and it probably includes a “basic
income” for everyone in society that is far higher than current models, as well
as free education that is state sponsored and no possibility at all to avoid
paying taxes via loss carry forwards or other tricks.
Yes, you can disagree with me on
all the things I write here and some of them might even be outright wrong, very
debatable or far-fetched. But unless we want to wake up in a world with populist
presidents everywhere that undoubtedly does not lead to a better society, then
we (my bubble) need to at least start thinking about this and how we can move
on and deal with automation (which again, is a good thing) properly. Please,
try to work for this change and try to signal to your politicians that you want
this change. Try to show that you are open to a better society and maybe even
come up with better ideas. Mine certainly are not good enough. Most
importantly, the next time you think or talk about an unemployed person –
never, not for one second, assume that he or she is just lazy. Instead maybe
invite them to think about this problem here and what his or her best solution
would be.
Thank you for reading.
